All posts in category Recessions

There is no reason to worry – yet

The Fed announced the CPI for May: 0.6% is still at a fast pace. But I don’t think we should worry. The rates announced so far match Claudia Sahm’s predictions: If we look at the PCE index, inflation has started to made-up its dip in 2020, but this does not necessarily imply that tightening is […]

Aggregate Demand is not what you think

Scott Sumner has a new piece arguing that supply and aggregate supply are unrelated and misnamed: The AS/AD model that we teach our students is misnamed, as it has nothing to do with the supply and demand model used in microeconomics. To take one simple example, the vast majority of industry supply curves are almost […]

This is not our grandfather’s recession

Scott Sumner wrote a post that the Keynesian model could not explain the recession we were in recently. Although I fully agree with Sumner, I intend to emphasize a few points. Let’s first look at this graph showing PCE and disposable income: The Keynesian models we have do not show that NGDP will drop 33% […]