Banana republic watch(UPDATE)

Update: Ok, it looks like I acted early. Frankly, I am happy with the result. Glad I was (partially) wrong.

I still agree with some of what I have said. The shy Trump voter effect has been overestimated, and victories like Arizona are not Biden’s success, but Trump’s failure. And I still believe that betting markets are more reliable.

Now that the result is more obvious, I have a lot more to say:

  1. I have hope for modest improvements in a few areas such as immigration, Cuban/Iran sanctions, federal potting, etc. I will not blame Democrats for higher taxes as GOP/Trump spends money like a drunk. 
  2. I expect a bad set of economic policies.
  3. In the coming years, there will be dozens of stories about Trump being one of the worst politicians in world history. All the stupid things he does will turn out to be stupid.
  4. The corporate tax rate will soon increase to 28%. Most of the “deregulation” (which is always overrated) will disappear. Perhaps the only positive permanent change will be a tougher line on China. However, this will be caused by a reaction; Trump liked that China put one million Uighurs in concentration camps.
  5. Even if Biden is inclined to do otherwise, it will make it difficult to pursue Trump’s policies. Consider the criticism that Biden would get from his own party if he continues with Trump’s malicious policy towards refugees. Even protectionist trade policies are now tainted.
  6. Leaderless GOP. Trump completely purged the party. The story of how Trump publicly humiliated McSally in Arizona changed the fate of this election.
  7. Most importantly, we are still becoming a banana republic! It’s time to equip all our weapons and start attacking the Woke People, interventionist foreign policies, illiberal economic policies etc… What libertarians do may change what happens in the coming years. We must defend classical liberalism more strongly than ever, against both the right and the left.

Original Post: Now that the outcome of the election is relatively obvious, these are much clearer:

  1. Trump’s win has been a disaster for the polling sector and the websites that rely on that. The problem is that this has already happened in 2016. The Shy Trump Voter effect was quickly forgotten. Blacks, Latinos, Hispanics everywhere voted more for Trump than in 2016. If the polls are far from missing the Trump vote than they were in 2016, that’s a much bigger problem for polls.
  2. Betting markets are always more reliable than polls(due to the shy Trump voter effect). Similar to 2016, this was a very close election and it’s clear that Trump won.
  3. People should have paid more attention to reports that Hispanic and Black voters were somehow turning to Trump. I see academicians on Twitter saying this is unpredictable. They claim that the social sciences are now finished, this outcome is unpredictable. Not at all. If they paid more attention to the facts, they would see that this is not the case. If there is a problem here, the Democratic Party still hasn’t learned how to do politics.
  4. Unfortunately, this result was coming fast towards us and nobody tried to do anything. After that, maybe he will seek the solution in Sanders, and things will get worse. In 2024, we will be caught between the two major pro-big state parties. I hope this doesn’t happen, but I am not optimistic about that.

There is not much to say. Clearly, Trump will now be much more like himself, as he will not have to worry about public opinion. He will move to a more corrupt and more authoritative phase where nothing can hold him back. Therefore, in the future, I will share more posts on US politics.

P.S: Check out this post by Scott Sumner.

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